Thursday, January 10, 2008

Thursday update

I was unexpectedly on the edge of my first real Nairobi protest today. Of course, for once, I didn't have my equipment with me.



It was a medium-sized march of female ODM supporters. They were chanting, "No Raila, No Peace!"



Things here have settled to a steady simmer. Every day there seems to be a little trouble somewhere in town... protests on Junga Road, trouble for Kambas in Mathare, a woman's march in Hurlingham.



The unrest continues, in part, because of some people's desire to revenge the violence and property damage against their community. The larger cause is the continuing political tensions.



Although Odinga and Kibaki's meetings with Ghana's Kufuor and other international visitors are still going on, there seems to be little movement on the road to resolution.



Kibaki has assigned half of his cabinet seats. Some people here are speculating that he left the other half open as a gesture to Odinga to say, "If we can strike a deal, there is still some room for your supporters in high office." Other people think the open seats are meant to lure ODM members of parliament to jump ship to PNU.



ODM's parliamentary majority is close to the number of seats needed to pass a vote of no-confidence that would force a new election. But that would require MPs to be willing to face another poll race as well, unlike a re-run of the Presidential ballot.



Odinga continues to vow not to stand down until there is a new Presidential race. He called off a scheduled ODM rally on Tuesday. Supporters around the country were planning to converge on city centers to name Odinga "The People's President." Despite the cancellation, and agreeing to meet with international delegates, Odinga has done little to encourage his supporters to stop their protests. He has been repeating the names and poll numbers from sites around the country where there is suspected poll-rigging.



On Tuesday, Odinga appointed the Presidential runner-up, Kalonzo, as his Vice President. That has led to violence targeting the Kamba community, as some people feel Kalonzo's acceptance of the post means he is taking Kibaki's side in the dispute.



Some street-corner political commentators here suggest that, by naming Kalonzo as VP, Kibaki is trying to dissuade Odinga from continuing to push for a new presidential ballot. They say Kibaki is hoping Odinga will fear that the nine or ten percent of the vote Kalonzo won last time, would go to the incumbent in a re-run.



Meanwhile, it is the poorest Kenyans and people in neighboring countries who continue to suffer. Thousands of businesses have been burned. Many people who were skating on the thin ice of small business are now without livelihoods. As prices for staples continue to rise (someone tried to sell me bananas for 10 shillings a piece yesterday... that is twice the regular mzungu price of five shillings), no regular income is leaving people without resources to buy food.



And then there are the approximately 250,000 Kenyans who are displaced from their homes. Many of those people are unlikely to return any time soon. Increased inter-tribal tensions are one reason for finding a new place to call home. Other people have no homes to which they can return.



Kibaki made an announcement yesterday that he would send out the police and the army's General Service Unit to maintain the fragile calm in the country. He also promised to help resettle people to their homes. As news crews were filming his speech, smoke was rising in the background from more homes in flames.



True to Kibaki's promise, today there are more security personnel on the ground. As we drove through one round-about today, a group of GSU in green fatigues were clustered around one copy of a newspaper, catching up on politics.



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