One day of rest: people, power, possibility

There is a magician downstairs.

He is saying "Abracadabra! Abracadabra!"

Kids are laughing. There are balloons and one of those inflatable trampoline things and cake and a big Happy Birthday sign. Someone is having a party around the sad little pool that borders our parking lot.

The small crowd gathered downstairs includes indigenous Kenyans, white folks and East Indians. It is taking all of my willpower not to go down and start interviewing people about conflict, race, tribes and politics. I would love to ask the magician-cum-clown how he managed to put on that red nose and a smile today.

But it's a party. And today is Sunday. Most of Kenya seems to be taking a day of rest.

I'm at home for the first time in many days. The shops and kiosks in the neighborhood are all closed. I imagine that everyone is at church this Sunday.

I've checked in with people around the country and, other than a sense of suspended animation and the ongoing need for food and paraffin, things are quiet.

On the political front, we have heard talk of coalition governments, vote re-counts and new elections. There seems to be little significant movement on any of those fronts.

Tomorrow some people will try to go back to work. Others will try to rally in downtown Nairobi. On Tuesday, demonstrations are expected in towns across the country.

Today, as people across the country take a deep breath and prepare themselves for a week of uncertainty, I want to take a step back from updates and look at the bigger picture.

The Problem

The Kikuyus and Luos are the two largest tribes in Kenya, where there are more than 40 distinct ethnic groups. Those tribes mingle in Nairobi, on the coast and in many smaller towns around the country. Much of rural Kenya is still largely divided up into tribal regions: Swahili on the coast, Luo and Luhya in the West, Kikuyu around Mt. Kenya.

Kibaki is Kikuyu. Most Kikuyus support him. Odinga is Luo. Most Luos support him, as do other people from tribes that are traditionally associated with western Kenya.The ethnic lines along which Odinga's ODM and Kibaki's PNU coalesced only reinforced the role of tribe in politics and business here.

This country has only had one truly fair democratic election, back in 2002. That's when Kibaki took over from Daniel Arap Moi. Moi, a member of the Kalenjin community, had been in power since 1978. He was constitutionally barred from running in the 2002 race. He had taken over after the death of Jomo Kenyatta, a Kikuyu who led Kenya from independence in 1963.

I have only been here for about five months now. I don't pretend to be any expert on Kenyan politics, history or culture. But I feel confident in saying that tribe is not just a name here in Kenya. It is a culture. There are different languages, different traditions and different social mores.

There is a growing body of writing on the role of culture in development. I am only beginning to scratch the surface in my own reading. But suffice it to say that what is happening in Kenya right now is, in part, an example of what can happen when people from many cultural communities live together in one nation state, with widespread poverty and the general perception that holding political power is an essential way to build prosperity for themselves.

If there was a history of leaders from one community serving the country as whole, of not putting their cultural community ahead of others, then people here might be more willing to support a leader from another tribe. With such a history, we might see a well-formed party structure that is based around issues and platforms, not just tribe and personality.

Perhaps democracy is more than just whether a leader won the majority of the votes without any electoral fraud. Perhaps democracy is also a population that believes that a national government is a group of people who will work together to serve the good of the country.

The People

Whether or not they identify as a nation, the conflict in Kenya right now is affecting people around this country.

There are widespread shortages of food and water. Although people here and overseas aid agencies are donating food, the deliveries are delayed for fear that hungry people along the roads might swarm convoys.

Food is not moving around the country. Neither are people. Either there is no transport available or people are scared by stories of occasional marauding groups attacking cars or the price of transport has risen beyond their means.

In classic conflict fashion, Kenya's currency is faltering. Yesterday, a group of international donors issued a joint statement that urged Odinga and Kibaki to come to some sort of resolution, or risk permanent damage to the Kenyan economy.

The economy has had about five percent annual growth over the past five years. It is slowly weaning itself off foreign aid.

But right now people can not get to work. Goods can not get around the country.

The people living in slums provide much of the labour force in urban areas. With the poor security and limited transportation, they can not get to work. Other people who left urban areas to go to their rural homes for voting and December holidays can not get back to urban centers to and back to their jobs.

Those urban workers support countless family members in rural Kenya. If they are not making money, then they are not sending money home. In a country where the average daily wage is still below $1.50 USD, most people do not have much savings to drawn from.

Goods can not get to stores around the country. Export commodities can not get out. Traffic at the Mombasa port has been slow, if not stopped, over the past week. Trucks full of flowers and produce have had a hard time getting to the planes that would carry them to markets in Europe and elsewhere.

Perhaps the industry with the most to lose in the long run is the tourism sector. Tourism and horticulture (flowers, vegetables, fruit) are the top two industries in Kenya. But some local tour operators say most of their bookings for the next six months have been cancelled. Many European safari operators have voluntarily cancelled tours in the face of warnings or bans against travel to Kenya.

Part of something larger

Many economies in this region rely on stability in Kenya. Goods move through this country on their way to Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Already those countries are seeing shortages in fuel and other staples, as supply lines through Kenya have slowed or stopped. Aid supplies also transit through Kenya on their way to Somalia, Sudan and eastern Congo.

While goods are not moving across the border, people are. They are reports of Kenyans fleeing to Uganda and Tanzania to get away from the fighting here. The idea of taking refuge in Uganda leaves many Kenyans shaking their heads, but a local paper reports more than five thousand people have crossed the border so far.

There is a large diaspora of Kenyans around the world. The conflict here is affecting them as well. There was a demonstration in front of the Kenyan embassy in Washington, DC on Thrusday. People called for an independent audit of the votes here.

On Saturday, there was a march in London, from Parliament, past 10 Downing Street, to the Kenyan Embassy. A Kenyan blogger living in London posted an essay about the event. One part of her story was particularly interesting to me. She wrote:

We walked to No.10 chanting demo slogans like "We want justice! Stop the killing Now!" The police stepped in to stop us from raising banners along Whitehall due to anti-terror legislation. I asked somebody which act they were using and somebody said "I don�t know. I don�t even think that the police know!"

�It was surreal. Here we were demanding that the British government respect the democratic will of Kenyans, but here in Britain 2008 the right to peacefully assemble and demonstrate is under attack.

For a moment I felt a terrible sense of impotence which quickly dissipated when I remembered that this is a matter for Kenyans to resolve, who needs Gordon Brown and his ridiculous ideas of coalition governments?

The Possibilities

A coalition government is what some other countries are suggesting Odinga and Kibaki form. If it is not working in England, with its relative cultural homogeneity and long democratic tradition, what kind of chance does it stand in an emerging democracy such as Kenya?

But maybe it is that kind of brave break from personality politics that will bring about true democracy here. Maybe Odinga and Kibaki can surrender their egos for the good of this country. As a friend of mine said today, "It's not their kids in Kibera or in Mathari, but they should still care about kids dying."

Other people suggest an independent body be brought in to recount the votes. As I have written here before, it seems clear that the ballots have not been secured since election day, so a recount probably will not put to rest all concerns about rigging.

There are reports that the Electoral Commission of Kenya will go to the courts for resolution of the election question. Some people have said that they think Kibaki will just dictate the court's findings. But for that to happen, in terms of Kenyan law, one of the parties must bring the complaint before the court. So far, neither ODM nor PNU has done so.

The other suggestion is another round of elections. Whether that would mean more time to arrange more rigging from both sides and a three-month respite before another round of conflict, I don't know. At this point, perhaps a new election overseen by a truly independent body is the fairest way forward.

Otherwise, maybe ODM supporters will run out of steam and Kibaki will lead the country for the next five years. Whatever happens, I am planning to stick around, to keep sharing the voices of Kenyans.

The Power of Words

"On Tuesday, it will be chaos."

"No, no. They won't rally. It will be quiet."

The crowd around the pool has shifted now. The sky is darkening and the adults have moved in. They are, of course, talking politics. I am, of course, eavesdropping.

It's taken me a long time to write this post. I know it's taken you a long time to read it.

There have been a lot of weighty terms thrown around about Kenya lately. For the first time, I have heard Kenyans use slang terms to refer to various tribal groups. Before last week, people always used formal tribal names in front of me.

During an interview with a Canadian news program last week, the host tried to get me to use the term "ethnic cleansing" to describe the situation here. I told her I had ethical issues with sticking such a weighty label on a sensitive situation.

I am cautious because I know the power of words. Kikuyu. Luo. They shape our perceptions. ODM. PNU. And those perceptions change our actions. Rally. Riot. Our actions change situations. Ethnic cleansing. Civil war. Genocide.

Even though the way forward is not clear, I will leave you with some optimistic words.

Not magic words. But hopeful words.

Somehow, someway, peace is always possible.